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User blog:RomGuyony/Cost Prediction of v4.3.1
A recent realisation has got me down about the game. Obviously, things are changing at FM as to how new content is being delivered. Gone are the days of completing a special event without spending Gold, even earning some on the way. Comparing stats from just before the recent update (v4.3.1) and July 2015, I've realised that I'm no closer to finishing the game. Indeed, I was at 96% completion and was at 96% again before the new update, which is now down to 94% until more cars become available. It's only obvious when scrutinising, but most "positive" changes that FM have made over the last two years are either temporary, or outweighed by a negative change. The positive ones are cried from the rooftops, whereas the negative ones are done slyly. Most of us will remember FM slashing the rewards (especially Fame) in half, some time last year. There was enormous backlash and the change was later rescinded, accompanied by an apology from the developers. I, for one, do not believe the reason they gave as being entirely truthful: they intended to align Le Mans rewards with the rest. If I recall correctly, it wasn't just Le Mans that was affected, but since that's where most racers farm, that was the most obvious location. They learned from that experience and any changes made to lower resource growth were done more discretely. In order to illustrate this, I could use many examples, including either NASCAR updates (the original and Daytona 500), but I will endeavour to keep it more relevant, concentrating on this release: Expected Rewards So, 5 new cars have been added and since they can all be won, let's assume their cost to be irrelevant. Let's purely concentrate on the cheapest way to upgrade cars to keep up with 100% completion. The new series are: Automotive Mastery (AM) in the Elite category, and GTE-Pro: Ford and Ferrari (GP:FaF) and GTE-Pro: Chevrolet and Porsche (GP:CaP) in the Legend category. Carrying on with the theme from the Venom Update where all three new cars needed to be upgraded for 100% completion, it's increasingly obvious that all 5 cars are under the same strategy. Indeed, the Jaguar C-X75 is the only car that can be upgraded to complete AM (just as the BMW 3.0 CSL for Retro RWD Tour, BMW 3.0 CSL Hommage R for German Grand Tour and Hennessey Venom GT for Breakneck Legends, also overriding the established strategy for Hypercar Charge), a fact established before even having access to the car. As for both GTE series, only one is currently open, which requires both cars to be upgraded to PR:89, with one of them to PR:90. While the other GTE series is currently locked, a similar strategy can be expected. Let's finally talk numbers. First of all: incoming Gold. There are 5 revenue sources: Series Rewards, Special Events Rewards, Ads, Daily Rewards and Fame. Since the later will differ from user to user, let's concentrate on the first four: *Series Rewards: **AM = 67 Gold **GP:CaP = 47+100% reward: assume 78 Gold total (extrapolation from AM and known rewards) **GP:FaF - unknown: assume 78 Gold, too (due to similarity with GP:CaP) *Special Events Rewards: **Porsche 911 RSR Championship (P9RC) = 80 Gold **Chevrolet Limited Time Series = unknown, assume 80 Gold too (due to similarity with P9RC) **[[The Gauntlet (Season 6)|The Gauntlet (Season 6)]] = 50 Gold **Le Mans: Legends = unknown, assume 240 Gold (extrapolated from Le Mans - Pursuit of Victory) *Ads = 5x6x7 = 210 Gold (5 Gold x 6 weeks x 7 days, expected length of update cycle) *Daily Rewards = Typical Rewards from 17th of May to 28th of June = (20+25+30+30)+(5+10+15+20+25+30) = 210 Gold While these contain some assumptions, we end up with 1,093 Gold of rewards for the entire length of v4.3.1. During the Venom Update, I went from Level 265 to 277. This will vary between users but given rewards from 265 to 274 yield 40 Gold/level and 42 Gold/level from Level 275 to 277, that's a total of 486 Gold. Assuming a similar sum is yielded in v4.3.1, we end up with a gross income of 1,579 Gold for the duration of the update cycle. Expected Costs While a strategy for GP:CaP has been established, it's as of yet impossible to devise one for AM or GP:FaF. For the former, we have the Required PR as 83.0. We also have the Jaguar's base PR which is 66.8. A recent car with similar PR is the Lamborghini Sesto Elemento, with base PR of 68.8 and final PR of 86.6, a difference of 17.8. Adding that value to the Jaguar gives us a predicted Max PR of 84.6. For a target of 83.0, that's 1.6 points of PR from maximum, assuming a similar upgrades pattern to the Sesto Elemento could see us end up with -2 Engine, -1 Suspension, for a cost of 536 Gold. For GP: CaP, RR3 Wiki:Upgrades Strategy For 100% Completion's strategy give us: Chevvy at PR:90 (-2 Engine - 837 Gold) and Porsche at PR:89 (-2 Engine & Drivetrain - 667 Gold), for a total cost of 1,504 Gold. Let's assume the same cost in GP:FaF (although the higher base PR could hint at higher costs) and expect 1,504 Gold for that series, too, giving us a gross outgoing of 3,544 Gold for 100% completion. Change in Gold and Conclusion Going back to my introduction and the difference of free gold ads between paying (regardless of whether it's £1.79 once or £79.99 several times) and non-paying users, non-paying users can expect a further 630 Gold from ads over paying users. This would result in a net cost of the update to be 1,335 Gold, with no other avenues to earn it from. However, a lot of people close to and chasing 100% will have at one point made one purchase, at least, in the span of time playing the game. For them, when all is said and done (unless a very pleasant and unlikely surprise that would contradict all this), we can expect this update to cost 1,965 Gold. This would require buying the most expensive Gold pack available, twice, to give a buffer of 73 Gold, for a real-life cost of £159.98. Now, I'm a big fan of this game, but this is turning into a bit of a farce. I expect when others realise this, FM will up rewards and lower costs of new content for a while, to give the impression they're taking advice on-board and easing off the pressure, but ultimately revert back to similar tactics. The never-ending story of the donkey and the carrot on a stick. Category:Blog posts